The 12th Man is Real, and He's Betting Against England

England have been "almost there" for decades. Euro 2020 final. Euro 2024 final. World Cup 2018 semi-final. Always the bridesmaid.

But here's what nobody's talking about: the 2026 World Cup will be played on hostile territory, and England's famous traveling support might be outnumbered everywhere they go.

The Diaspora Problem

Los Angeles has the largest Mexican population outside of Mexico. Miami is essentially a Latin American city. New York hosts massive communities from every South American nation.

When England play Mexico in Los Angeles, expect 80% of the crowd to be cheering for El Tri. When they face Argentina in Miami, the Colombian and Argentinian fans will drown out the Barmy Army.

Our crowd influence system models this reality. Teams with strong local diaspora presence receive strength boosts of up to +3 points, while isolated nations get nothing.

Who Benefits Most?

Mexico, obviously. They'll effectively have home advantage in every US venue-LA, Houston, Dallas, Miami, Philadelphia. The Mexican diaspora is massive and passionate.

USA gets the official home nation advantage (+5 boost) but interestingly, in cities like Miami, they might face more hostile crowds than expected.

Colombia, El Salvador, and other Central American nations will find unexpected support in US cities with large immigrant communities.

The Traveling Armies

Some nations bring their own atmosphere wherever they go. Argentina's fans are legendary. The Dutch travel in orange hordes. Scottish supporters turn any stadium into a party.

We've identified these "traveling army" nations and give them a small crowd boost (+1) regardless of venue. It's not much, but it reflects the psychological lift of passionate support.

England's fans are dedicated but limited in numbers compared to the millions of local fans they'll face.

Simulate the Crowd Effect

Enable Crowd Influence in our simulator to see how venue dynamics shift match outcomes. You might be surprised how much the 12th man matters.

Run simulations with and without crowd effects and compare how often England reaches the final. The difference is stark.